The climate target aiming for a 55% emission reduction by 2030 compared to 1990 levels falls within the range of projected emissions. Under all the climate plans that were known and calculable on 1 May 2023, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 of 46% to 57% compared to 1990 levels is possible. The volume the reduction may eventually reach depends on a wide range of uncertainties, such as expected policy impact, the level of electricity imports or exports, economic growth, energy prices, the weather and technological developments.
With the climate plans from the Spring Memorandum a huge step can be taken towards the realisation of the now statutory target of a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 relative to 1990 levels. To meet this target with greater confidence, it is crucial that all climate plans are elaborated and implemented as ambitiously and rapidly as possible.
Based on the climate plans from the Spring Package for which an impact assessment could be made, this report foresees final energy consumption in 2030 to come to 1,566 to 1,818 petajoules. This means that the European Energy Efficiency Directive target of 1,609 petajoules falls within the projected range, but is only attainable if circumstances remain favourable, including uncontrollable factors, such as energy prices and the weather.
This report foresees primary energy consumption by 2030 to be in the range of 1,951 to 2,323 petajoules. This means that the target for primary energy consumption of 1,935 petajoules is out of range.
We report on the progress made with regard to the climate and energy transition, analysing the current and future impact of policy on greenhouse gas emission reduction and exploring various options for achieving the reduction targets.
The KEV 2024 also shows that numerous plans have been worked out over the past two years. However, the maximum projected emission reduction in 2030 is lower than was projected in the KEV 2023, due to setbacks in implementation of policy and cancelled policy measures.
The Netherlands is on track to meet its European emission target in the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) for the sectors built environment, mobility, agriculture, and small industry. These sectors have a cumulative emissions budget of 830 megatonnes for the period 2021-2030. In the projection, the Netherlands stays well below this figure with 781-819 megatonnes, which is partly due to the sharp decrease in emissions over the past two years because of COVID-19, higher energy prices, and the rapid growth in wind- and solar energy.
The European goal for renewable energy for the Netherlands has been raised significantly last year, from 27% by 2030 to 39%. The now projected 30-37%, therefore, is well below the target. The European goals on energy savings, equally tightened last year, also require more attention.
This KEV also contains a projection for 2035 and a look towards 2040. These indicate that the speed of emissions reduction under current policy is insufficient to reach an indicative emissions reduction of 90% in 2040 in an EU context (as established by the European Commission), or to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
The term ''energy transition'' refers to the large-scale social transformation needed to switch from an energy system based on non-renewable sources to a system that is based on renewable and sustainable sources. The ultimate goal here is to reduce the net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050 and as such, achieve climate neutrality. However, this does not just involve replacing coal, oil and gas with wind and solar energy.
The energy transition encompasses society as a whole and affects countless aspects of daily life. It is about the switch from coal-fired power station to wind energy, but it is also about upgrading homes so that they can be heated better. It is about reducing our consumption and about research into new sustainable and energy-efficient technologies. It is about attracting investments, building infrastructure and creating business cases that will help the renewable sector flourish. Finally, it is about making responsible, clear, and effective policies.
The transition requires investments. Starting with research into new technologies and their development. In addition, a policy is needed that supports the development of renewable energy. Furthermore, campaigns are required to educate society about energy saving and to raise awareness about the importance of a sustainable lifestyle. A sustainable energy system helps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It improves the energy security and promotes economic development while protecting the environment.
The success of the energy transition depends on the cooperation and collaboration of governments, businesses and civil society. Energie-Nederland contributes to the energy transition by advocating and striving for clear legal frameworks based on the principle of market forces and a fair distribution of costs. An equal playing field, both nationally and internationally, creates the smartest and most efficient sustainability.
As regards SDG 2, the country focuses on reducing phosphate, nitrogen, and ammonia emissions and ensuring sustainable food production, facilitating a conversion to organic farming as well as promoting research and innovation in other forms of sustainable agriculture, such as permaculture and environmentally friendly farming (Kingdom of the Netherlands, 2017).
On SG 6, the Netherlands aims to establish fair, efficient and sustainable water supply and sanitation services. The Kingdom anticipates that the high quality of drinking water may come under pressure due to climate change or water contamination. To meet future challenges for drinking water and groundwater quality, over 30 parties have signed a declaration of intent to jointly improve water quality further (Kingdom of the Netherlands, 2017).
On SDG 7, the Netherlands has one of the lowest rates of renewable energy production in Europe. Thus, this SDG remains a challenge for the country. Measures and policies are being developed to find innovative ways to reduce industry''s energy use (Kingdom of the Netherlands, 2017).
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