The global non-hydropower renewables sector will experience robust growth over the coming years supported by government climate commitments.We forecast global non-hydropower renewables generation will increase from 3,686TWh in end 2021 to 7,661TWh in 2031 at an annual average growth rate of 7.6%. Non-hydropower renewables capacity will more than double with over 2,100GW coming online over the decade. We highlight that government policies and commitments to decarbonising the power sector are core drivers of this growth.
Over the coming years,global power consumption growth is set to even out beyond 2023 after extreme volatility, with a near term surge in power demand. While some markets have peaked in their power consumption, such as Japan, many emerging markets are experiencing rapidly growing power consumption. This has spurred emerging markets to develop renewables as the costs of renewables, such as solar and wind, have been falling.
With the expansion of the green hydrogen sector, we expect renewables adoption to increase accordingly. Governments across the world have announced large capacity growth plans with the current green hydrogen pipeline at 280 projects totalling 170GW. This new source of demand for renewables will act as a capacity growth enabler unlocking new regions with high renewable resource potential but poor demand or a lack of suitable infrastructure.
However, current project pipelines and supportive renewables policies need to be strengthened to reach set targets with most major markets set to fall short.While the targets proposed by governments are ambitious, developments in the renewables sector are limited compared to what is required. To this point, we forecast only mainland China will achieve its 1,200GW target for capacity of total installed non-hydropower renewables by 2030, maintaining its position as the world''s largest driver of the sector''s growth over the coming years.
US renewables sector faces headwinds from volatile political environmentThe current administration has set ambitious targets of reaching 80% and 100% ''clean energy'' generation in its power mix by 2030 and 2035 respectively. We expect the market to fall well short of this goal, reaching only 32.1% in 2030 (including hydropower). Our bearish view is backed by the fractured political situation in the US, which will hamper low carbon energy policy continuity and is blocking key tax reform.
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings'' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.
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