All these studies focus on the 2030 horizon. And no recent study focuses on the electricity mix of Togo until 2050. This work aims to open the debate on the issue by investigating, using clear assumptions, the future investments needed to achieve national and international goals related to sustainable energy and climate change. The modelling tool used for this purpose is based on the bottom-up modelling approach.
The rest of the work is structured as follows: Section 2 presents the methodology and the data used. Then, the results of the economic optimization are presented in section 3, and a discussion in section 4, ending with a conclusion in section 5.
Where TDC, OC, IC, EP, RV, y, t et r respectively stand for total discounted cost, operating cost, investment cost, technology emission penalty, residual values, year, technology and region. The constraints gi can be either of equality or inequality. A full description of OSeMOSYS is presented in the paper of (Howells et al. 2011).
Togo's reference electricity system is shown in Fig. 1, which is a schematic representation of the country's electricity supply chain from primary sources to consumption by sectors. In this study we consider secondary sources and energy potentials presented by the national energy regulator in its report (Autorité de Règlementation du Secteur de l''Electricité 2022).
The electricity demand profile used in this study is based on the data selected for the modeling of Togo's energy system (Allington et al. 2021). The total demand is the joint sum of the demands in the residential (RES), industrial (IND) and commercial (COM) sectors. Figure 2 shows the annual evolution of the national demand.
The second scenario is based on the first one. The difference is that the model is constrained to progressively reduce greenhouse gas emissions from 2030 to zero in 2050 following a decrease according to the Weibull law. This law is characterized by the following function:
In the third scenario, the evolution of the electricity mix is assessed if an emissions penalty is applied for each ton of greenhouse gases emitted in the process of electricity production. The carbon price is set at 40 USD/t between 2031 and 2040 and at 65 USD/t between 2041 and 2050, in line with the level of carbon pricing recommended to reach the Paris Agreement targets. This scenario is based on the first two.
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