The Government of Tajikistan instructed from October 1 this year to increase electricity tariffs for all categories of consumers, except for OJSC “Tajik Aluminum Company”. It is also instructed to increase tariffs for thermal energy.
At the same time, the publication refrained from publishing an annex to the resolution, which indicates the amount of tariff increase for each category. In previous years, tariffs for electricity and heat increased by an average of 15%.
The increase in electricity tariffs, to a certain extent, came as a surprise, since the government of the country adopted an anti-crisis plan in March of this year, which instructed until the end of 2022 to postpone the increase in tariffs for utilities (electricity, heat and water), freight transportation, medical and educational services.
Winter has come early in Tajikistan, with the national power company, Barqi Tojik, notifying customers on September 21 that seasonal rationing of electricity would begin the following day "where necessary" – a month earlier than usual.
Tajik media outlet Asia-Plus reported that although Barqi Tojik did not specify what was meant by "where necessary," rural populations had been receiving electricity for 8-10 hours per day, split into two periods in the morning and evening, since September 21.
The Barqi Tojik statement noted that a seasonal electricity shortage of more than 1 billion kilowatt-hours is anticipated, based on low water levels in the Vakhsh River. "Year after year, the increase in the demand of the population and social and economic sectors of the country causes a seasonal shortage of electricity," the statement said.
Tajikistan''s electricity system is in a state of crisis. Approximately 70 percent of the Tajik people suffer from extensive shortages of electricity during the winter The winter electricity shortages are caused by a combination of low hydropower output during winter when river flows are low and high demand driven by heating needs.
The Tajik government has poured billions into the Rogun project, but its potential to aid in addressing winter energy shortages is limited. The 2013 World Bank reported noted that hydropower systems have diminished capacity during the winter "due to low river flows." With climate change exacerbating the highs and the lows, this will continue to be a concern.
Tajikistan has stated that it will rejoin the unified grid in May 2025, but cautious optimism is warranted. In 2018 the Asian Development Bank approved a $35 million grant to help Tajikistan reconnect to the Central Asian grid by 2022; it''s not clear what happened to that project, but Dushanbe was not plugged back in by 2022.
Tajik officials often urge citizens to be mindful of their electricity usage. For example, as reported by Asia-Plus, Barki Tojik press secretary Nozir Yodgori claimed that "the most correct way that can reduce the seasonal shortage of electricity is careful, economical consumption of electricity by the population.”
As both the audit and the World Bank reported cite above suggest, there is a need for updated reviews of Tajikistan’s energy system and policies. It’s clear from the worsening conditions that whatever has been done isn’t enough.
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